Future Of Music

In the face of insurmountable odds I feel a competition is in order.

Here’s a pretty telling graph – Recorded music sales over time since 1999.   This is the truth.

If you are trying to make money selling recordings, or producing them you are selling into a market that is auguring into the earth.  If you are a pure-play label – either cash out soon and go home before it’s really too late, or start writing a new business plan.  It is time for you to start over.

If you really want to do 360 deals, then get the capacity, personnel and expertise to actually produce results or you are toast.  Todays nimble entrepreneurs and emerging music service environment is going to eat your lunch.  Specialization is in, generalization is out.

If you are a record producer or engineer, create other products to produce.  Broaden your horizons.   What are you going to be a producer of?  What “insanely great” product can you create?

If you think you can survive in the recorded music business, find something else to sell.  Simple as that.  There is no recovery from this decline.  Sure songwriters and publishers can still make money licensing for film, TV and new media (like ring tones), but the engine that has driven the music business for the past 60 years has run out of steam.

Recorded music as a propellant into prosperity is no longer viable.

Accept this fact, move on and adapt.  Use this as a jumping off point.  Reinvent yourself or your business.

This has been my mantra for the past 6 or 7 years.  If this RIAA graph above is not evidence enough, then I don’t know what is.  If you think being signed by a “record label” is your ticket to ride, then nice to have known you.   Enough already.  I can’t believe how many people still want this.  American Idol?

And if you are the RIAA, and think trying to preserve recorded music as a “business” is a sound investment, I would advise you look for another job, and soon.  Gaming Soundscan to count T-Shirts as a way of propping up the numbers and thinking everything is ok is self deception.  Look around you.

This is the truth people.  Recorded music sales are going to end as a viable business driver ’cause it is just not working anymore and is an outmoded concept of what music was all about.  “Digital” tracks are not going to cut it as they have been conceived thus far because it is just the same thing in a different form.  Fixing music in time makes no more sense.  Music is more fluid than ever.  Subscription revenue and streaming licenses are not going to support anyone when they are optional.  We need something new, something bold.

With this as a background I created Music Power Network.  To help people discover the future of music for themselves, and create a plan to take their careers forward.

We have to dig deep here.  This is a time to be honest with ourselves.  What is your music career all about anyway?  How are you going to survive?  What are your goals and your dreams?  How do you define success?  You can’t eat passion and you can’t spend perseverance.  What is your business plan?  What is your marketing plan?  We need some new ideas.  What are you going to do?

It is too easy to say that a 360 model is the way to go.  360 for who?  You or the “label”? What do you really need?  Who is actually going to provide the services required?  What does the team look like?  Where is the value, talent and capital going to come from?  Who is going to back your vision?

Think you have it figured out?

I am going to put together a team of people to search for the best new music business plans for musicians, songwriters and producers.  In the coming weeks we will put this competition together and announce it officially at SXSW or sooner.  Details will be forthcoming on how to enter, who the judges are and what the prizes will be.  I promise you it will be worthwhile and interesting.

So start working on your strategy and your business plans.  To be notified when the competition is announced, please click here and enter your email on the bottom of the page.

Please leave comments below on any ideas you have for judges, prizes, people to reach out to, etc.

Dave

The music industry is being reinvented before our very eyes. Learn how it is developing from today’s entrepreneurs including Ian Rogers from TopSpin, Steve Schnur from EA, and Derek Sivers and how you can capitalize on the changing opportunities.

MPN is my latest project and an online service for music business people and music and artist managers creating the future of the industry. MPN provides online music business lessons, exclusive video interviews and advice, career and business planning tools and thousands of specially selected resources designed to help you achieve success in this ever changing industry. MPN gives you the tools, expertise and guidance to help you get organized and take your music career to the next level. Learn from industry experts, set your goals and realize your vision.

Learn more at Music Power Network.

Learn from Grammy award winning producers like David Kershenbaum and Phil Ramone and leading publishers, A&R reps and music supervisors on the secrets of being a successful musician, producer or songwriter.

MPN is my latest project and an online service for songwriters, music producers and independent music publishers. MPN provides online music business lessons, exclusive video interviews and advice, career and business planning tools and thousands of specially selected resources designed to help you develop yourself as a successful industry professional. MPN gives you the tools, expertise and guidance to help you get organized and take your music career to the next level. Learn from industry experts, set your goals and realize your vision.

Learn more at Music Power Network.

Here are some ideas that you can use as a musician, band or artist from Music Power Network from artists Kelly Cha, Jill Sobule and J the S. There are a lot more videos like this on the site.

MPN is my latest project and an online service for independent musicians and bands. MPN provides online music business lessons, exclusive video interviews and advice, career and business planning tools and thousands of specially selected resources designed to help you achieve success as a self-sustaining artist in an ever changing industry. MPN gives you the tools, expertise and guidance to help you get organized and take your music career to the next level. Learn from industry experts, set your goals and realize your vision.

Learn more at Music Power Network.

(Friday Feb 6th, 2009) the digital distributor to college campuses Rukus shuttered its doors with this notice: “Unfortunately the Ruckus service will no longer be provided. Thank you,” That means lights out for a number of colleges, universities and students who had signed up for “free” ad supported music.

Ruckus, first hatched in 2003, was acquired by TotalMusic, a collaboration between Universal Music Group and Sony Music Entertainment.

TotalMusic itself (reported on here in 2008) is also now being shuttered, at least according to details shared by Vice President of Product Management Jason Herskowitz in Digital Music News.

“I regret that we didn’t get to show you guys more about what we built – but in these extremely hard economic times it’s hard to blame them for pulling the plug on a still-highly-speculative offering,” Herskowitz offered. “I only hope that someone else figures out how to crack this music-on-the-web nut in a way that is a win for everyone in the value chain,” Herskowitz continued. “The problem is that to make a music service a win for everyone, all of the famished participants have to sit at the table – and be content to let all the others have a little bit to eat, even though they are still hungry themselves.”

It is clear that protected music locked up in a highly controlled service is just simply not what the consumers want anymore, if ever. Continued pursuit of a rights-managed solution that attempts to preserve the status-quo of copyright holders controlling the distribution of music is futile. No more money needs to be wasted on looking backwards.

Instead, lets all come together and help to create systems that embrace frictionless distribution of music and respect the desire of the music consumer to select what they want to listen to. If we make it easy for them to find what they want, more will come. If we make it cheap enough so that the music appears to be free, move will come. If we make it possible for people to spread the word on a new service that suits their needs, more will come. We need to look forward, not backwards and admit that the old game is over and a new game has begun.

I met with Derek Sivers this past weekend (founder of CD-Baby) and asked him what he thought about the recorded music business and the decline in CD sales. He said “well I’m not quite sure what you mean Dave, as sales of indie music at CD Baby have increase at least 30% in 2008 over 2007.” What CD Baby does is provide a way for indie artists to sell their music online in CD form, to sell their music online in digital form and to provide distribution for artists who had none. Many of these artists are thriving now because Derek was willing to think different.

TuneCore is another service that lets artists put their music online for distribution through iTunes, Rhapsody, Amazon, eMusic and other services for a small up-front fee. This is a radical business model that looks forward, not backward, and pushes indies artists ahead on their journey.

New companies such as Lala, iLike, TopSpin, ReverbNation, SonicBids, Nimbit and many, many others are taking radical new approaches to indie artist promotion and distribution that will change the way that the music business functions. Connecting artists directly with their fans in a meaningful way that respects that relationship and lets it thrive is the way of the future.

Artists need to band together to assemble the knowledge and power that is required to propel them into the future. Watch this space for much more on this subject in the coming months. It is time for a revolution in thinking about music commerce and sustainable models for artists and their fans to connect and engage and prosper and interact. This is what the future of music is all about.